Subseasonal Temperature Forecast Error Propagation to Snow Water Equivalent and Spring Runoff in Western U.S. Mountain Basins
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Abstract
This study quantifies the propagation of subseasonal near-surface temperature forecast errors into snow water equivalent (SWE) and spring runoff across 21 mountainous basins in the western United States (elevation range 1,800–3,400 m; drainage area 95–2,750 km²). ERA5 reanalysis (0.25°, hourly, 1981–2023), SNODAS SWE (1 km), and 312 SNOTEL stations are integrated within a physically based SnowModel–VIC hydrologic framework. Subseasonal forecasts from European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts are perturbed using a stochastic bias generator (Gaussian + temporal autocorrelation, σ = 0.8–2.5°C) and propagated through 2,400 ensemble simulations. Results show that a +1°C systematic bias shifts peak SWE timing earlier by 6.2–11.4 days and reduces seasonal SWE volume by 9.3–15.8%. Runoff peak discharge errors reach 18–27%, with low-elevation basins showing 1.6× higher sensitivity than high-elevation basins. Variance decomposition indicates that 46% of runoff uncertainty originates from melt rate nonlinearities, while 31% arises from accumulated snowpack errors. A SHAP-based interpretability analysis identifies cumulative positive degree-days and melt threshold exceedance frequency as dominant drivers. The results reveal a nonlinear amplification chain from temperature forecast errors to water supply uncertainty at subseasonal scales
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